BLOGS

The "five-year high" claim doesn't hold up in the numbers

Headlines framing a surge in planning applications deserve scrutiny before developers and lenders reprice their pipeline assumptions. REalyse's planning database, tracking residential applications across England back to 1989, shows a different pattern: submissions have fallen in four of the last five years, from roughly 24,600 in 2020 to around 14,700 in 2025 — a decline of more than 40%. Grants have followed the same trajectory, dropping from around 15,200 in 2020 to just over 9,100 in 2025.

What has changed is the direction of travel within 2025 itself. Submissions rose slightly year-on-year after bottoming out in 2024, and refusals have fallen faster than approvals, suggesting local authorities are processing a smaller but more targeted pool of applications with more consistency. For investors and lenders using planning pipeline as a leading indicator of future supply, this is the more useful signal than any single-year "high."

Reform is speeding up decisions, not necessarily growing the pipeline

The average lead time between decision and start on site has compressed steadily, from roughly 340 days for applications decided in 2020 to under 300 days by 2024–25 across REalyse's tracked schemes. That's a meaningful improvement in delivery speed, consistent with the government's push — through the revised National Planning Policy Framework and mayoral development corporations' fast-track routes — to cut discretionary delay and push local authorities toward faster committee turnaround.

For developers, this matters more than raw application counts. A shrinking pool of applications processed faster, with a higher proportion converting to starts, points to a system that is becoming more efficient even as fewer schemes enter it. Regional REalyse data for schemes decided in the past year shows decision lead times ranging from around 190 days in London to over 280 days in the North East, reflecting how unevenly reform is landing across planning authorities with different resourcing and committee structures.

Where approvals are actually landing

Regional distribution remains heavily skewed toward the South. REalyse's granted-applications data for the most recent year shows the South East and London together accounting for close to a third of all residential units granted nationally, with the East of England and South West also contributing disproportionately relative to their populations. The North East, by contrast, granted fewer than 8,000 units over the same period — underlining a persistent geographic imbalance in where the pipeline is thickest, independent of any national reform narrative.

Grants are converting to starts at encouraging rates — with regional gaps

The number developers, investors and lenders should actually be watching is conversion, not volume. Across REalyse's tracked schemes decided in the past year, upwards of 90% of granted applications with recorded outcomes have already moved to a start date, with several regions — the East Midlands, East of England and West Midlands — converting above 96%. London and the South East sit slightly lower, at around 93%, with a marginally higher share of granted units still awaiting a start, likely reflecting larger, more complex schemes with longer pre-construction phases (site assembly, section 106 negotiation, build-cost repricing).

This is a healthier conversion picture than the "planning applications surge" framing implies, and it's the metric lenders assessing development finance risk and investors underwriting forward-funded schemes should prioritise over top-line application counts. A scheme's decision date tells you little; its historical local authority's conversion rate and typical decision-to-start lag tell you much more about realistic delivery timing.

What this means for the market

The practical takeaway for institutional players: don't underwrite off headline planning application volumes. REalyse comparables at borough and local-authority level show conversion rates and lead times vary enough between neighbouring authorities that portfolio-level assumptions built on national averages will misprice individual sites. Reform appears to be genuinely shortening the path from decision to spade-in-ground nationally, but it is not yet reversing the multi-year decline in applications entering the system — a distinction that matters for anyone modelling future housing supply, GDV timing, or loan covenant schedules tied to construction starts.

For developers and lenders assessing a specific site or local authority, REalyse's planning and development data can benchmark expected decision timelines and historical conversion rates against comparable schemes nearby, helping stress-test delivery assumptions before capital is committed.