BLOGS

The UK housing market is sending a familiar but uncomfortable signal: more homes are available to buy, yet fewer are actually selling. On the surface this looks like a supply-led opportunity for buyers. Dig into the regional data and a more nuanced picture emerges — one shaped by post-stamp-duty hangovers, persistent affordability pressures, and a growing divergence between markets in the North and those in London and the South East.

Transactions are falling across the board

Land Registry completions data, as tracked by REalyse, shows registered sales volumes declining year-on-year across every major English region when comparing Q3 2024 with Q3 2025 — the most reliable recent window given the typical two-to-six month registration lag.

London saw the sharpest fall: roughly 22% fewer registered completions in Q3 2025 compared with the same quarter a year earlier. The South East and North West each recorded declines of around 14%, while Yorkshire and the Humber and the North East both fell by approximately 12%.

Those headline drops are partly distorted by the stamp duty surge that preceded them. The temporary nil-rate band threshold — raised to £250,000 during a government stimulus window — reverted to £125,000 in April 2025, triggering a familiar race to complete before the deadline. London alone registered nearly 54,000 completions in Q1 2025, its highest quarterly figure in the dataset, before volumes fell sharply to around 26,000 in Q2 as the pipeline emptied. The post-rush hangover has yet to fully clear.

Across these five key regions the average registered quarterly completions for the more settled Q3 2025 period ranged from around 12,300 in the North East to 40,500 in the South East, with London sitting at roughly 33,700 — well below its pre-rush run-rate.

Stock is rising, but buyers are not biting

The supply side tells a different story. REalyse active listings data shows the South East now carries the largest volume of for-sale stock of any English region, with over 660,000 listings in the current dataset. London follows with approximately 501,000 active listings, and the North West sits at around 376,000.

This accumulation of stock — particularly pronounced in the South East and London — reflects a market where sellers have returned to market but buyers remain cautious. Properties in London are averaging around 89 days on market before finding a buyer, while South East listings are sitting for roughly 87 days. Even in the more affordable North West and Yorkshire, homes are spending 83–84 days on market on average.

These are not crisis-level figures, but they mark a meaningful shift from the sub-60-day environments seen during the pandemic-era seller's market. Vendors who priced ambitiously at the start of a marketing campaign are increasingly finding they need to adjust — and REalyse comparables data shows that understanding local price-per-square-foot benchmarks has rarely been more important for setting a credible asking price from day one.

A market that is increasingly price-sensitive

Nowhere is the shift in buyer power clearer than in asking-to-achieved price dynamics.

REalyse data shows that in the South East, completed sales are achieving an average of around 1.2% below the original asking price — a modest but telling discount that reflects buyers willing to negotiate rather than compete. London buyers are securing properties at approximately 1.0% below asking, a figure that sounds small in percentage terms but translates to a meaningful saving on an average London asking price of around £733,000.

The broader picture is one of a market that rewards patient, well-informed buyers. Sellers who reduce their asking price after weeks on market often achieve weaker outcomes than those who price correctly from the outset, and REalyse valuation data increasingly reflects this — with price-per-square-foot comparables showing tighter bands in active markets where comparable evidence is plentiful.

The North is a different market

The regional contrast at the other end of England is striking. In the North East, where the average asking price runs at around £206,000 — less than a third of London's average — properties are selling in approximately 77 days, the fastest of the major English regions analysed.

More significantly, North East completions are recording average achieved prices that are effectively at or marginally above asking price — a signal of a supply-constrained, demand-supported local market where buyer competition remains real. North West transactions show a discount of under 0.5%, also pointing to a more balanced dynamic than in the South.

The affordability arithmetic explains much of this. With average asking prices in the North West at around £308,000 and in Yorkshire at approximately £289,000, mortgage affordability stretches further for the same household income than it does in the South East or London. Gross yields tracked by REalyse also tend to run higher in northern markets — often in the 5–7% range for certain property types — which keeps investor and buy-to-let buyer appetite more active, supporting transaction velocity even as the overall market slows.

What this means for buyers, sellers and investors

For sellers in London and the South East, the data is a clear prompt to price realistically from day one. Rising stock means buyers have alternatives; properties that linger on market risk acquiring the stigma of "what's wrong with it?" — a perception that drives down achieved prices further. REalyse valuation tools and comparable evidence can help agents and vendors anchor asking prices to what the market will actually support, rather than aspirational peaks from two years ago.

For investors, the regional divergence opens up a strategic conversation. While capital growth assumptions remain muted across the board in the near term, income-return metrics in the North continue to offer attractive entry points — particularly for those who can underwrite deals using granular rental and transaction comparables rather than relying on broad market averages.

For developers and housebuilders sitting on consented schemes, the slower sales environment demands sharper analysis of local absorption rates and unit-mix assumptions. REalyse planning and pipeline data shows that new-build completions are competing with a resurgence in second-hand stock in many southern markets — a dynamic that was less visible during the demand-driven years of 2021–2023.

Outlook

The UK sales market in mid-2026 is not in freefall — but it is clearly in a period of recalibration. The stamp-duty distortion is fading, mortgage pricing remains elevated relative to the pre-2022 era, and buyers have more choice than at any point in recent years.

The markets most likely to stabilise first are those where affordability remains intact and yields justify investor activity: the North West, Yorkshire, and parts of the North East. London and the South East face a longer adjustment, particularly at price points above £500,000 where buyer pools thin sharply. Whether that adjustment comes through price reductions or simply a prolonged period of weak volume will depend — as it usually does — on what happens to mortgage rates in the second half of the year.