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The indices disagree—but what does the data say?

Anyone tracking UK house prices in early 2026 could be forgiven for confusion. Nationwide's monthly survey suggests tentative price growth, Halifax reports near-flat values, the ONS/Land Registry index lags by several months but hints at stabilisation, and Rightmove's asking price tracker swings with seasonal sentiment. Each index uses different methodologies—mortgage approvals, completions, asking prices—so divergence is inevitable at market turning points.

But beyond the headlines, transaction-level data tells a clearer story. REalyse analysis of completed sales over the past 12 months shows total transactions of approximately 737,000 across the four main property types, with an average sold price of around £337,000. Crucially, the market is not moving as one: some segments are recovering while others remain under pressure.

A tale of two property types

The headline divergence sits between property types. Semi-detached homes have posted a modest 0.17% year-on-year price gain—the only segment in positive territory—averaging £312,000 with a relatively brisk 79 days on market. Detached homes have edged down 1.2% to around £496,000, while terraced properties have fallen 3.5% to £274,000.

The most pronounced weakness is in flats, where prices have dropped over 13% year-on-year to an average of £267,000. Several factors are compounding pressure on this segment: ongoing leasehold reform uncertainty, elevated service charges, and the structural shift in buyer preferences towards outdoor space that accelerated during the pandemic. With flats averaging 99 days on market—the longest of any property type—vendors in this segment face tougher negotiations.

For buyers, this divergence creates opportunity. First-time purchasers targeting flats in areas with strong rental demand may find discounted entry points, while those seeking family homes in the semi-detached bracket face a more competitive environment.

Regional winners and laggards

Geography adds another layer of complexity. Wales leads the UK with 2.8% annual price growth, followed by Scotland at 1.1%. Both nations benefit from relative affordability and continued domestic migration from higher-priced English regions.

The North East and North West are essentially flat, with declines of less than 0.5%—a sign of stabilisation rather than recovery. The Midlands show mild softness of 0.5% to 1.7%, while the South West and East of England have each pulled back around 2%.

London remains the weakest link, with prices down 6.7% year-on-year. The capital's average sold price of £600,000 is still nearly double the national median, and affordability constraints continue to bite. Transaction volumes in London totalled 84,000 over the past year—robust by historical standards but down from pre-2022 peaks.

REalyse data shows that days on market in London are stretching as sellers adjust expectations. Vendors who priced realistically from the start are achieving closer to asking price, while overpriced stock is languishing.

What the indices measure—and why they differ

Understanding why indices diverge requires a quick look at methodology. The Land Registry index, produced jointly with ONS, is based on completed transactions and adjusts for property characteristics—making it the most statistically rigorous but also the slowest to publish. Nationwide and Halifax indices are faster but narrower: they track only their own mortgage approvals, skewing towards certain buyer segments. Rightmove measures asking prices, which often lead actual sale prices but can be more volatile.

At inflection points like the current moment, these differences are amplified. Mortgage-based indices may show early signs of recovery as lending conditions ease, while the Land Registry lags. Asking price indices can overshoot on the upside as vendors test the market.

For property professionals using REalyse, the ability to drill into actual transaction data—filtered by postcode, property type, and time period—provides a more granular and current view than any single index. Comparing sold prices to asking prices, analysing days on market, and benchmarking against local comparables all add depth to the headline figures.

Outlook for buyers and vendors through 2026

The picture emerging is not quite recovery, but nor is it continued decline across the board. The UK sales market is best described as in a soft rebound—with pockets of strength in affordable regions and family-sized homes, and lingering weakness in flats and premium London postcodes.

For buyers, the next 12 months may offer favourable conditions in segments that remain discounted, particularly flats where long-term fundamentals (rental demand, transport links) are sound. Cash buyers and those with larger deposits will find less competition.

For vendors, realistic pricing is essential. Properties priced in line with recent comparables are selling within typical timeframes; those chasing 2022 peak values are sitting on market. Working with agents who can access granular market data—such as REalyse comparables and valuation tools—will help set expectations and accelerate sales.

The indices will likely converge as 2026 progresses and more transaction data flows through. Until then, looking beyond the headlines to postcode-level trends and property-type breakdowns remains the most reliable way to navigate a market in transition.