BLOGS

A planning system finally showing signs of life

Eighteen months after Labour's revised National Planning Policy Framework (NPPF) came into force, the evidence of a system responding to policy pressure is becoming harder to ignore. Planning Portal data cited by the BBC points to a 60%+ jump in applications for new homes submitted outside London since the reforms took effect — a marked reversal after years of subdued housebuilder activity through 2022–2024, when interest rate uncertainty and pre-election policy limbo froze many pipelines.

The headline change behind this shift is "grey belt" — a new land classification introduced in the December 2024 NPPF covering green belt land that is either previously developed or makes "limited contribution" to the five statutory purposes of green belt designation. Alongside restored mandatory housing targets (370,000 homes a year, working toward 1.5 million over the Parliament) and a strengthened presumption in favour of development where councils lack a five-year land supply, the reforms have materially changed the calculus for land promoters and developers working the fringes of protected land.

For institutional investors, lenders and developers, the practical question isn't whether the policy exists — it's where it's actually converting into deliverable pipeline, and where local politics is likely to slow it down regardless.

What REalyse's own planning data shows

REalyse's planning dataset, tracking applications by submission date, decision status and proposed unit counts across English and Scottish local authorities, corroborates the broad direction of travel — with some important texture the national headline figure misses.

Comparing applications submitted in the 2023–Q3 2024 window against the post-reform period from Q1 2025 onward, several English counties outside London show clear acceleration:

• Cheshire: applications up around 26%, with proposed units up roughly 150% — one of the strongest unit-volume responses in the dataset, consistent with larger strategic sites coming forward rather than incremental infill

• Cornwall: applications up roughly 16%, units proposed up around 30%, suggesting steady rather than explosive growth

• Hereford & Worcester: applications up modestly (around 6%), but proposed units up close to 60% — again pointing to bigger schemes rather than more numerous ones

This pattern — flat-to-moderate growth in application counts alongside sharply rising unit numbers in the applications that do come forward — echoes what we'd expect if grey belt release is unlocking larger, more strategically significant sites rather than simply generating more paperwork. Developers appear to be bringing forward the sites that were previously marginal or stalled, now that the policy backdrop supports them.

Approval rates tell a more cautious story. Across the regions in REalyse's dataset, the median approval rate has fallen from around 62% pre-reform to around 46% post-reform. That dip likely reflects two forces at once: a larger, more speculative pipeline working its way through committee, and councils — particularly outside the strongest growth corridors — taking a harder look at sites now that the volume of applications has increased. It's a reminder that a rising pipeline is not the same as a rising completion rate, and scheme-level due diligence remains essential before underwriting any grey belt-adjacent land deal.

Not every region is converging on the same story

Scotland operates under its own planning framework and sits outside the NPPF changes entirely, yet several Scottish regions in REalyse's data — including the Highlands, Grampian, Tayside and the Borders — show application counts ticking up modestly while proposed unit volumes have fallen by 40–60% over the same period. This is a useful control: it suggests some of what looks like "reform effect" in English data may also reflect broader market recovery from the 2023–24 downturn, with the NPPF changes then layering additional acceleration specifically onto English authorities under the most pressure to demonstrate housing land supply.

The geography of the English surge is also uneven. Areas without an up-to-date local plan, or unable to demonstrate a five-year housing land supply, are most exposed to the "presumption in favour of sustainable development" — effectively weakening a council's ability to refuse speculative applications on grey belt sites. Anecdotal and industry reporting points to the South East growth corridor, the Oxford–Cambridge Arc, and parts of the East of England and Midlands as the most active battlegrounds, precisely because these are the areas where green belt boundaries, acute affordability pressure and outdated local plans intersect.

The local political backlash

The regional winners in planning volume are, almost without exception, also the sites of the sharpest local political friction. Campaign groups including CPRE have accumulated tens of thousands of petition signatures calling for the grey belt definition to be tightened, arguing that developers are stretching the "limited contribution" test well beyond disused car parks and scrubland to cover swathes of genuine open countryside. A House of Lords committee has separately criticised aspects of the policy's implementation as rushed and lacking strategic rigour.

For institutional players, this matters commercially as much as politically. Schemes approved by planning inspectors over the heads of local councils — a growing pattern since December 2024 — carry a different risk profile to consented sites that went through a smoother local process: elevated appeal risk, reputational exposure for anchor tenants or forward-funders, and potential delay to reserved matters and discharge of conditions as councils apply extra scrutiny elsewhere in the process to compensate. Viability is also under more pressure than the headline site release might suggest — grey belt "golden rules" require up to 50% affordable housing provision plus infrastructure and green space contributions, materially affecting residual land values and investor returns on schemes that look attractive on a unit-count basis alone.

Outlook: pipeline growth is real, but selective due diligence still wins

The direction of travel is clear: grey belt reform has changed what developers are willing to bring forward, and REalyse's own regional data supports the broader Planning Portal and BBC picture of accelerating activity outside London. But the story beneath the 60%+ headline is one of concentration, not uniformity — a handful of growth corridors and higher-pressure authorities are absorbing most of the new pipeline, approval rates are tightening even as volumes rise, and local resistance is most intense exactly where the opportunity is greatest.

For developers, lenders and investors evaluating grey belt-adjacent opportunities, the practical takeaway is to treat the "surge" as a screening signal rather than a green light: cross-reference application volume growth against local plan status, five-year land supply position, and golden rules viability before committing capital, and expect appeal risk and affordable housing obligations to shape returns as much as the underlying land release itself.