BLOGS

A submissions surge, but is it converting?

Labour's grey belt policy — unlocking lower-quality green belt land for housing where local plans fall short of targets — was designed to break the planning logjam that has constrained UK housebuilding for over a decade. Eighteen months on from the revised National Planning Policy Framework, REalyse planning data shows the policy is doing at least part of its job: application volumes on green belt land have held up robustly even as overall market sentiment has been mixed.

The more interesting story, though, is what happens after submission. Our data shows total residential planning applications running at roughly 5,600–6,500 per quarter through most of 2024 and into 2025, comfortably above the circa-2,200 recorded in Q3 2023 before the reforms bedded in. Applications granted, however, have not kept pace proportionally — falling from a peak of around 3,900 in Q4 2023 to roughly 2,300–3,400 through 2025. That divergence is the central tension institutional investors and developers need to understand before pricing sites on the assumption that grey belt release automatically means faster permissions.

What the numbers actually show

Some of this gap is a timing artefact rather than a policy failure. Planning decisions typically land six to twelve months (or longer for major schemes) after submission, so the most recent quarters in any dataset will always look "under-granted" simply because cases haven't worked through committee yet. Treat the sharp apparent drop-off in the last two quarters of our series with that caveat — it reflects decisions still in the pipeline, not a collapse in approval rates.

Looking at the fuller run of data where decisions have had time to mature, a more measured picture emerges:

• Total applications submitted: consistently above 5,500 per quarter since Q4 2023, versus roughly 2,200 in the quarter before that — a step-change in activity coincident with the reform period.

• Applications granted: peaked at around 3,900 in Q4 2023, settling into a 2,700–3,400 range through most of 2024 and 2025 — still elevated versus pre-reform levels, but not scaling in lockstep with submissions.

• Green belt-specific applications: running at roughly 350–500 per quarter over the trailing three years, a meaningful and fairly stable share of the residential pipeline, with unit volumes on granted green belt schemes fluctuating between roughly 3,500 and 17,500 units per quarter.

For institutional investors and lenders, this pattern is consistent with a system absorbing a genuine increase in developer appetite — land promoters and housebuilders are clearly testing more sites — while local planning authority capacity and committee timelines haven't necessarily expanded at the same rate. That's an operational constraint, not a policy reversal, but it matters for underwriting timelines and GDV phasing on grey belt sites.

Regional variation tells its own story

REalyse's regional breakdown of green belt planning activity over the last two years shows the reform's effects are far from uniform across the UK:

• North West England and the East of England lead on green belt units granted, each delivering roughly 5,000–5,900 units through granted schemes — suggesting these regions have both the land supply and the local planning appetite to convert grey belt release into pipeline.

• South East England shows the highest application volume of any region (nearly 700 green belt applications submitted) but a comparatively lower approval rate in the high-30s percent, reflecting the tighter constraints and higher scrutiny typical of London's commuter belt.

• South West England stands out for approval rate — over 44% of green belt applications there were granted, the highest of any English region in our dataset — though absolute unit volumes remain modest, pointing to smaller-scale schemes rather than large strategic sites.

• London, Wales and Northern Ireland show comparatively limited green belt application activity in this dataset, consistent with London's tightly drawn green belt boundary and the more localised nature of grey belt-style reform outside England.

For developers and land promoters, this regional spread is a useful screening signal: the North West and East of England currently look like the more permissive environments for converting grey belt sites into granted units, while the South East offers scale of opportunity but requires more patient capital given lower conversion rates.

From permissions to completions — the harder test

Ultimately, grey belt reform will be judged not on applications or even permissions, but on completions — homes that reach the market and get sold or let. That's a slower-moving indicator, and one where REalyse's comparables and transaction data will be essential to track over the next 12–24 months as granted schemes move through construction. Institutional investors underwriting grey belt-adjacent sites should model realistic build-out timelines rather than assuming a straight line from permission to delivery; historically, build-out rates on large strategic sites in the UK have lagged permission volumes by several years, particularly where drainage, infrastructure, or S106 negotiations remain unresolved post-grant.

Lenders and credit teams assessing development finance against grey belt sites should also weight local authority capacity and historic approval rates as part of collateral risk assessment — REalyse's local authority-level planning data allows this kind of due diligence to be done systematically rather than anecdotally, comparing a target site's local authority against national and regional benchmarks for approval speed and rate.

Outlook

The direction of travel is encouraging for anyone positioned in UK residential development: application volumes are up, and a material share of that increase is flowing through green belt and grey belt-style sites. But the conversion rate from application to permission — and, more importantly, from permission to completed home — remains the metric to watch. As more of the 2024–2025 cohort of applications reaches decision, and as the first wave of grey belt permissions moves into construction, REalyse will be tracking whether this policy genuinely accelerates housing delivery or simply redistributes where applications are being tested. For now, treat the application surge as a leading indicator of intent, not yet confirmed evidence of additional homes reaching completion.